The Financial Equivalent of Turbulence
Anyone who has flown enough has experienced turbulence.
The plane shakes.
The seatbelt sign turns on.
Conversations stop.
For some passengers, it’s mildly uncomfortable.
For others, it feels catastrophic.
But here’s what most people don’t understand:
Turbulence is normal.
It is part of flying.
Financial markets operate the same way.
Volatility is the financial equivalent of turbulence.
Turbulence Does Not Mean the Plane Is Failing
When an aircraft hits turbulence, it does not mean:
The engines are failing
The wings are breaking
The flight plan was wrong
It means the plane is moving through unstable air.
Markets behave the same way.
When portfolios decline 15–25 percent, it does not automatically mean:
The strategy is broken
The economy has collapsed permanently
Retirement is over
It often means markets are moving through a cycle.
The mistake is confusing motion with failure.
The Real Risk Is Overreaction
As a flight instructor, I learned quickly that inexperienced pilots react poorly to turbulence.
They overcorrect.
They grip the controls too tightly.
They make abrupt movements.
That’s what creates instability.
The proper response is controlled input. Small adjustments. Trust in the aircraft’s design.
In investing, turbulence triggers similar behavior:
Selling at the bottom
Abandoning long-term plans
Chasing “safe” assets at the worst time
The damage rarely comes from the turbulence itself.
It comes from the reaction.
Sequence Risk Is Severe Turbulence
There is one caveat.
Not all turbulence is equal.
Light chop is manageable.
Severe turbulence requires preparation.
In retirement, severe turbulence is early sequence risk.
If markets decline significantly in the first few years of retirement and withdrawals are occurring simultaneously, the stress on the portfolio increases.
That’s not fear-based.
It’s math.
This is why structure matters.
If income is staged in advance and guardrails are defined, turbulence becomes uncomfortable but manageable.
Without structure, it becomes destabilizing.
The Role of Preparation
Before every flight, there is planning:
Fuel reserves
Alternate airports
Weather briefings
Emergency procedures
Pilots assume something might go wrong.
Financial planning should do the same.
You assume:
Markets will decline at some point
Bonds will not always protect
Inflation will erode purchasing power
Tax laws will change
You don’t eliminate turbulence.
You prepare for it.
Doing Nothing Is Not the Answer
Some passengers decide flying is too risky.
So they don’t fly.
That eliminates turbulence.
It also eliminates arrival.
In financial terms, avoiding all volatility by sitting entirely in cash feels stable.
But over time, inflation becomes its own form of turbulence.
Quiet. Persistent. Damaging.
Avoidance is not the same as safety.
What Calm Actually Looks Like
In aviation, calm during turbulence is not denial.
It is confidence in structure.
The aircraft is built for this.
The route was planned.
The crew is trained.
In financial planning, calm looks like:
Income staged for multiple years
Guardrails defined in advance
Allocation aligned with time horizon
Taxes considered deliberately
When turbulence hits, the plan already accounts for it.
The Point
Markets will shake.
That is not a prediction.
It is a certainty over long time horizons.
The question is not:
“How do we avoid turbulence?”
It is:
“Is the portfolio designed to withstand it?”
In Grosse Pointe, many affluent households have strong portfolios.
What they often lack is turbulence preparation.
Volatility is not the enemy.
Unstructured exposure is.
And just like flying, preparation determines whether turbulence is frightening or manageable.
